On June 10, 2026, the Bank of Canada announced it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The decision comes as global uncertainty persists, driven by ongoing geopolitical conflict, energy market volatility, and continued trade policy tensions. Rising oil prices and supply chain disruptions are contributing to inflationary pressure while also weighing on global economic growth. Global Economic Trends Remain Generally Steady In the United States, growth remains solid, supported by consumer spending and AI-related investment. In contrast, the euro area continues to see weaker growth as higher energy costs weigh on activity. China’s economy remains more stable, supported by strong export demand. Global financial conditions have loosened since the last Monetary Policy Report, with strong equity markets and continued volatility in bond yields. The Canadian dollar has also weakened against the US dollar and other major currencies. Canadian Economy Shows Soft Momentum Recent data shows the Canadian economy contracted slightly in the first quarter, with GDP edging down by 0.1%. While consumer spending increased, declines in government spending, housing activity, business investment, and exports weighed on overall growth. Employment increased in May, but overall labour market conditions remain soft, with unemployment holding between 6.5% and 7%. Even with expected near-term improvements, the economy is still projected to operate with excess supply. Inflation Remains Elevated but Moderating CPI inflation rose to 2.8% in April, largely driven by higher energy prices, including oil and the removal of the consumer carbon tax from the year-over-year comparison. Core inflation has eased closer to 2%, and broader price pressures remain more contained. Food inflation has moderated but remains elevated, while shelter inflation continues to ease. Overall inflation is expected to remain near 3% in the near term before gradually moving back toward the Bank’s 2% target. Policy Decision And Outlook Against this backdrop, the Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 2.25%. The Bank noted ongoing weakness in domestic growth, persistent global uncertainty, and elevated energy prices. While it continues to look through short-term inflation impacts from energy, it emphasized it will not allow these pressures to become entrenched in long-term inflation trends. The Bank remains committed to supporting price stability and will respond as needed as economic conditions evolve. Looking Ahead  The next scheduled announcement for the overnight rate is July 15, 2026, when the Bank will also release its next Monetary Policy Report. Until then, borrowing conditions are expected to remain relatively steady as markets continue to adjust to evolving global and domestic economic signals. Have questions about how this may impact your buying or selling plans? Contact us today to discuss your next steps in today's market.

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